Motorola may exit handset biz, Google to rescue WiMAX

Motorola may exit its handset biz
- One of the analyst said about the possiblity the giant mobile handset maker may exit the handset business to save the company. From the last year, we are seeing lots of smoke from Motorola. It had been no.1 in the handset market. It is no.2 that is having really big trouble. Samsung is following very closely. At this year's end, we will see Motorola as no.3 or none. It is getting interesting.

Google to rescue WiMAX
- I had though WiMAX (WiBro in Korea) is in great danger because Sprint is troubled last year. They broke up with Clearwire and did bad in their business. This year seems to be not a good year for launching a new (maybe expensive) service while the world economy is so shaking. It is really surprise that Goolge invested money to WiMAX. Let's see what will happen in the second half of this year.

Etc
- Nokia bought TrollTech
- Mobile UI by Mozilla [1,2]
- Skyfire full browser on Windows Mobile
- AT&T will launch MediaFLO next week
- Sky Dayton step down
- Kyocera is pulling out of china

Rumor: Apple includes WiMAX in the notebook

Rumor: Apple might include WiMAX in their notebook products, especially for ultra portable one.
- Apple might introduce new notebook lineups in this time Macworld. And it can contain WiMAX in it. I am sure of that. Apple always surpised us and can do the same thing again. A few hours later we will know what Steve has for the surprise.

Amazon MP3: no-DRM, iriver w10 gsm, A-VBS, SlingPlayer on iPhone

Amazon MP3 : completely ready for the war againt DRM protected MP3
- The last of the big 4 majors joined Amazon MP3. Amazon provides no-DRM MP3 music contents to the customer. DRM is the issue debated for a very, very long time. I hope we can see much more DRM-free musics.

iriver w10 GSM : another just iphone-like phone
- iriver has been known as one of the most creative company in the digital world. w10 is a shame on them. I hope they can do better than this. I would like to believe them.

A-VBS and MPG : another broadcast format
- Samsung developed A-VBS and LG developed MPG are another formats for mobile broadcasting. These are out of reach of carriers. These can be deployed independently. It could be good for the broadcasting companies who would not need to pay money to the carrier. But, too many options sometimes are not good.

SlingPlayer on iPhone
- iPhone always could be a hype and a good platform that show your product shiny. When a company shows that something is working on iPhone, it appears to them that they are one of the top most important company. iPhone lacks very important thing. Even though it has wi-fi, it does not have 3G capability. From my personal experience, iPhone platform looks to be unstable. Youtube crashes, Safari crashes. I hope these cons are addressed on the 3G iPhone.

The 5 phases of a Hype Cycle (from gartner group)

What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?

1. "Technology Trigger" The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest. 2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures. 3. "Trough of Disillusionment" Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology. 4. "Slope of Enlightenment" Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology. 5. "Plateau of Productivity" A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

2008 Predictions: Open, Smartphone, Mobile Advertising, WiMax

Open
- Open will be a key in 2008. Last year we have seen lots of open access strategy from carriers and manufacturers. I hope carrier loose the their too much tight grip on the control.
700MHz auction (whoever will win, it goes open access),
Google Android (open mobile platform),
iPhone SDK (now real smartphone),
Verizon's open access strategy,
AT&T already open (according to their announcement)

Smartphone
- 2008 will be the year of smartphone. 2007 is the year of the beginning of smartphone market. Actually smartphone has been started much earlier. But it did not take off. With successful iPhone launch and Google android, mobile business succeeded to draw the attentions. We can see huge amount of smartphone device in 2008. Touch screen or not is important. Everybody will want a smartphone instead just rudimentary mobile handset.
Apple iPhone in 3G
Google Android
Blackberry new device like iPhone
Samsung BlackJack3 (?)
LG touch screen phone (PRADA phone, KS20)
Dell's entering to smartphone market
HP
HTC
Lots of taiwanese windows mobile companies (ASUS, GIGABYTE, ...)

Mobile Advertising
- As the screen size is getting bigger and the processor power is getting better, there is a good oppotunity for mobile advertising. There have been many experiments about mobile advertising. In the next year we can see some fruits. Google and Microsoft are also battling in this field. Yahoo, too. Let's see who will win.
Microsoft
Google
Yahoo

WiMax
- This is the year Sprint promised to provide the WiMax to all around the US. Actually I am not sure if this will be a success or not. I am suspicious about the WiMax. Even though they look to create a big market, I think it would be a small niche market. There are lots of alternatives. HSDPA, EV-DO, and 4G.
Sprint
ClearWire
Samsung
Intel

Broadcom won over Qualcomm, Amazon DRM-free Music

Broadcom won over Qualcomm
- Qualcomm chips that infringe 3 patents of Broadcomm are immediately barred from the U.S. market except EV-DO chips with sunset period. Qualcomm always are talking about the workaround. But it has a big flaw. The manufactures who are using those infringing chips already completed the development and is on the way of shipping. Usually the workaound is switching the flawed(?) chip to the new one that workaround the patents. As this is h/w change, the carrier could want to evaluate the device thoroughly. This is not good. I think Qualcomm find the another way to solve the patent problems. There are lots of patent issues with Nokia, Broadcom. If this kind of unreliability conitinues, many of their customers turned away. Worse, the small companies who do not have much resource will lose lots of money.

Amazon DRM-free Music
- Amazon is trying to compete with iTunes. Even more, they are chaning the digital music market. Lots of customers have complained about the irritaing DRM protection. Even though they paid money, they cannot use the bought music freely. I wish Amazon succeed and change the music market.